A report by the International Transport Forum OECD shows that if the 0.5% global sulphur cap is implemented in 2020, the rise in costs for container ship operators could be between 20-85%, which would lead to an increase in cost per TEU of approximately USD 400 and overall USD 5-30 billion per year.
Post the January 1, 2015 sulphur cap for ships sailing in Emission Control Areas (ECAs), container ship operators have already seen an increase of USD 500 million due to the increased use of more expensive low-sulphur fuel.
Although the figures depend on ship size, speed and fuel price, a recent report published by OECD states that using a fuel with no more than 0.1% sulphur content in ECAs has led to container lines increasing their expenditure on fuel in particular.
The report shows that the increase in costs for container ship operators on the Asia-North Europe route was fairly marginal in 2015, but could be substantial in 2020, with increases up by a possible 85%.
The impact on individual shipping companies is also substantial, as Maersk Group has voiced. The company estimated that the additional costs for its total fleet was around $200 million due to the requirements set by the ECA sulphur limit.
However, if the global sulphur cap is not implemented until the later date of 2025, costs for container ship operators could increase between 4% and 13%, mainly attributed to the sulphur cap of 0.50% that would be introduced in EU waters.
OECD states that this would reduce the demand for low-sulphur fuels and allow a longer transition period for building up low-sulphur fuel refineries to increase capacity and availability, leading to a smaller price differential.
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