By Don Gregory, Director Exhaust Gas Cleaning System Association (EGCSA)
This month, at IMO’s 70th session of the Marine Environment Protection Committee it will be decided when sulphur in marine fuel is be globally limited to 0.5% for ships operating outside of Emission Control Areas. The start dates under consideration are 2020 or 2025.
Ample Time
The decision will have profound implications even though the marine industry has had ample time to get ready. More than 10 years in fact, as IMO adopted the schedule for a global reduction in fuel sulphur down to 0.5% in 2008, with the regulation entering into force in 2010 as part of the revised MARPOL Annex VI.
The work on emissions compliance technologies as an alternative to traditional marine fuel oils started in the late 1990’s and now exhaust gas scrubbers are one of the principal alternative options for ship operators. There has been pretty much 20 years of preparation.
This is already recognised in Europe, where the European Union has decided that the 0.5%S limit will apply in European waters outside of ECAs from 2020 regardless of what happens at IMO.
Expert Advice
When setting 2020 as the date to cap sulphur emissions IMO included a provision in MARPOL Annex VI to delay implementation until 2025, if an IMO appointed group of experts determined that fuel availability would be a problem. That work is now complete and is to be debated at MEPC 70.
Industry insiders believe that one or more submissions to IMO will confirm that fuel availability will not be an issue and while there may be papers highlighting “stresses” that must be considered, there could be well be significant upsides for shipping and its suppliers if a positive approach is taken.
Why wait?
History has shown that supply and price changes are absorbed and markets react if forced. Recent examples include the EU’s Directive for 0.1% sulphur fuel for power plants, and the requirement for automotive ultralow sulphur diesel (USLD) and gasoline (USLP). In all cases industry first cries wolf, then complies with minimal supply disruptions.
A delay to 2025 will do nothing to reduce impact of the entry into force of the 0.5% fuel sulphur limit. Either date (2020 or 2025) will not accelerate or incentivise early investment. Refiners, seriously worried about early investments resulting in mistaken decisions and stranded investment, will react after the fact.
With a notice period of 10 years, 20 years of technology investment and ongoing technology development, 2020 appears the only coherent way forward for IMO Administrators to improve outcomes for human health and the environment.
Picture courtesy of IMO.
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