World energy demand will plateau from 2030

Rapid decarbonisation of the energy supply and increased electrification will lead to a plateau in energy demand from 2030.

In DNV GL’s Energy Transition Outlook report, 2017, it finds that increased focus on renewable energy sources will make up nearly half of global energy supply by 2050. This will cut CO₂ emissions in half.

Renewable sources, such as wind and solar photovoltaics, are predicted to drive renewable energy expansion, with renewables and fossil fuels having an almost equal share of the energy mix by 2050. Further decarbonisation will be brought about by the decline in coal, oil, and gas, in that order according to the report. Coal use has already peaked, oil will peak within the next 10 years and gas in 20 years, but gas remains the biggest single source of energy for the world through to 2050.

This global energy transition is expected to occur without a significant increase in overall annual energy expenditure. The future energy system will require a smaller share of GDP than present. DNV GL predicts that the world’s energy will actually cost less than 3% of global GDP compared to the current level of 5%.

Solar and wind power costs are expected to decrease by 18% and 16%, respectively, per the doubling of capacity. The take up of electric vehicles will be rapid, and extensive, according to DNV GL. By 2033, half of new light vehicles sold globally will be electric and half of new passenger cars sold will be zero emission ones.

Renewable energy sources are also expected be more resilient to climate change impacts and less vulnerable to price hikes and transitional power influences as the physical nature of these systems are indigenous and home grown.

Despite greater fuel efficiency and reduced reliance on fossil fuels, the report predicts that the Paris Agreement will not be met due to a global warming of 2.5˚C. The model still points to a significant overshoot of the carbon budget, which will require bigger action from governments and decision-makers in the energy industry.